The International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) has released a new report which forecasts record levels of displacement resulting from war and conflict in 2024.
The migration think tank states in its report, released today (Wednesday, January 17), that it expects migration to be a key topic this year, as many countries around the globe are due to hold either national or regional elections.
It claims that last year, global migration trends saw “an alarming surge in displacement,” totaling a record number of 114 million as a result of escalating armed conflicts and heightened geopolitical tension.
The report explains: “Preliminary data saw a 21.2 percent increase in EU asylum applications, indicating one million claims at the end of the year – the highest number since 2016 – foreshadowing an equally challenging situation in 2024.”
The report goes on to talk about some of the causes of migration last year: “Geopolitical dynamics had a significant impact on migration in 2023: military coups in Africa led to a rise in the irregular flow of migrants, which led to further EU external cooperation on migration.
“Domestic concerns led to a further securitization of migration in many of the world’s regions, for instance through widened repatriation and expulsion policies in countries like Pakistan, Iran, Algeria, and Tunisia.
“This trend is expected to continue in 2024 as well, affecting hundreds of thousands of people and raising the potential for secondary migration flows.”
Migration Report’s Predictions for 2024
Outlining developments in Europe and the European Union, the report highlights the EU Talent Pool, migration and mobility partnerships and a wide array of measures supporting the recruitment of skilled labor from outside the EU.
Additionally, it also notes that 2024 will be a pivotal year for the economic integration of Ukrainian beneficiaries of temporary protection in the EU.
International Center for Migration Policy Development’s director General Michael Spindelegger, said: “This year, every EU country should achieve a formal employment rate of Ukrainian refugees of at least 50 percent. Next year, two-thirds should be employed in total and – taking our most pressing labour market needs into account – half of them should find their way into the health sector.”
The report also investigates the more recent debate on ‘asylum offshoring’, the external processing of asylum claims, which started to be taken seriously in the EU last year, with schemes like the agreement between Italy and Albania.
Also underscored is the potential effectiveness of visa policies as a tool to curb irregular migration, as seen by the increase in asylum applicants following the abolishment of visa-free entry to Serbia.
It also encourages policymakers to watch for trends such as the intertwining of geopolitics, a growing number of migrants in countries in crisis and migration’s pivotal role on election campaigns.