The decline of the Eastern Roman Empire has long been attributed to natural factors like the Late Antique Little Ice Age (536–660 A.D.) and the Justinian Plague (541 A.D.), which were thought to have weakened the empire. However, a recent study in the journal Klio by researchers Haggai Olshanetsky and Lev Cosijns challenges this view, suggesting that the empire may have actually experienced a population boom during this period.
The methodology that they used led them to uncover what they call the true reasons behind the decline of the Byzantine Empire in the 6th century AD.
The scientists applied an innovative approach using macro and micro data, analyzing samples from shipwrecks and key sites like the ancient city of Elusa in the Negev Desert (Judea/Palestine).
Scientists argue that the decline of the Byzantine Empire was linked to human and military factors
Many theories on the Roman Empire’s decline emphasize events like the Roman-Persian War and the Islamic conquest. Some argue these alone aren’t to blame. Instead, they believe the cooling climate during the LALIA (536–660 AD) and the Plague of Justinian (541 AD) likely caused severe population loss, disrupted agriculture, and weakened trade, contributing to the empire’s downfall.
The authors of this new theory have taken it upon themselves to question mainstream interpretations of the Byzantine Empire’s 6th century steep decline.
According to the authors, the archaeological evidence used to support these theories is often partial, and other sets of data are often overlooked. Their new findings show that studies on settlements and trade patterns in the Mediterranean that had been previously overlooked suggest that there was continuity, going as far as claiming a possible expansion.
Some of the conclusions that scientists were able to draw from these findings are that contrary to popular theories, the Byzantine Empire’s commercial and agricultural activities were sustained during the 6th century and may have even increased.
This discrepancy may well have been due to the fact that some of the studies that focused on the Byzantine Empire’s collapse in the 6th century relied on primary textual sources. The implication here is that there was a lack of analysis of other archaeological sources.
Climate change did not lead to population collapse
The research carried out by the authors also shows that climate change may have played a much more limited role on the decline of the Byzantine Empire.
It is argued that despite the northern hemisphere seeing a drop of 1.6 degrees Celsius, the drop in regions such as Egypt and Judea would’ve been just 0.25 degrees. The authors cited primary sources from the time period suggesting that climate change caused by volcanic dust in 536 AD was short-lived and therefore not that relevant for the decline of the Byzantine Empire.
Justinian Plague did not lead to population collapse in Byzantine Empire
Perhaps the boldest claim made by the authors of this study was that the role of the Justinian Plague in the collapse of the Byzantine Empire has been exaggerated by researchers. According to experts, there are potentially two main reasons for this.
Evidence from the period shows only minor outbreaks or other diseases, rather than a severe resurgence of the plague. Additionally, recent genetic studies on the Justinian Plague suggest it may have reached Europe earlier, possibly coexisting with the population without triggering a crisis. No strong evidence supports that the plague led to massive depopulation or an irreversible economic downturn.
Islamic Expansion
Instead of indicating a sudden collapse, the researchers suggest that occupation in Elusa and other sites persisted throughout the 6th century and into the early 7th century. It wasn’t until the Islamic expansion that abandonment in the Negev became apparent, likely due to disrupted trade routes and a reduction in agricultural activities.
One key finding is the stability of commercial activity in the eastern Mediterranean. By analyzing shipwreck data, the authors argue that, rather than experiencing a decline, eastern Mediterranean trade routes showed continuity or even growth into the late 6th century. This ongoing trade, they propose, does not reflect an economic crisis from plagues or climate shifts. Only in the 7th century, with the Islamic conquests and the end of the Persian conflicts, did trade see a significant downturn.
Their conclusions are further supported by archaeological evidence from Israel and other eastern Mediterranean regions, which reveal population growth and increased settlements in the 6th century. This trend only declines in the 7th century, more likely due to military and political upheavals than natural factors.