The latest report by the Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analyses of the University of Thessaly paints a grim picture of the demographic present and future of Greece as the country’s population continues to age disproportionately and drop dramatically in numbers.
Data showed that the total population of Greece declined by half a million in the last thirteen years, while the birth-death balance is projected to remain negative until at least 2050, pointing towards a shift in the migratory flows balance as the most imminent solution to the problem.
According to the report, the reasons for this significant decline in population are not only related to demography, but more generally to the social challenges that Greece has faced in recent decades, and the worsening living conditions for residents, either native Greeks or migrants.
Half a million population decrease in only 13 years
Greece has a relatively high ageing population rate and one of the lowest annual fertility rates in the European Union, with a progressive increase in childlessness rates. It is estimated that twenty-three percent of its inhabitants are over 65 years old, while in 2023 the over-65s were almost one million more than the 0-14 years old age group.
In the last thirteen years, between 2011 and 2024, Greece has been recording consistently negative birth-death balances, which, combined with the negative migration flows balance of the same period, caused the population to decline by almost 500 thousand people.
The number of births in 2023 was only 72.3 thousand, accounting for half the average annual births in the twenty-year period 1951-1970.
The population decrease would have been visible much earlier if the national demographics weren’t boosted by incoming migratory flows since 1990, which temporarily countered the declining birth rates in Greece.
Since 2011, however, the so-called “brain drain” that forced the younger generations of Greeks to leave the country by the thousands, combined with the massive return of migrants of previous decades to their home countries, has rendered the negative natural balance impossible to miss.
The role of migratory flows and worsening living conditions in Greece
The Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analyses of the University of Thessaly has stressed the role of incoming and outgoing migratory flows in the demographic problem, observing how Greece has failed between 2011-2021 to make people of productive and reproductive ages stay in the country.
This applies both to Greeks seeking better living conditions abroad, and to foreign migrants who passed from and stayed in Greece but were not integrated to the population.
A previous study by Lambrianides and Sykas, released in 2023, showed that Greeks were lured abroad first and foremost by better employment conditions rather than better wages. They were also driven away from Greece due to integrity issues, and the lack of an open-minded, safe, and inclusive society. A comparative study by Kouzis in 2022 confirms that Greece demonstrated the most worsening employment conditions in Europe between 2009-2019.
Multiple factors discourage younger Greeks from creating a family
Low work-life balance, minimal benefits for families and childcare, unaffordable housing, low wages and high cost of living, all of them confirmed by respective studies, are listed in the report among the causes that discourage or delay young people in Greece from creating their own families.
One in three young respondents aged 17-34 said they struggled to make ends meet each month, while 37.3 percent was considering moving abroad for a better job.
“There is a framework of life in Greece – first of all, the living and working conditions, for both Greeks and foreigners – that needs radical improvements in almost all areas of everyday life: housing, work, health, education, family and child benefits, etc,” the report states.
The study concludes that the discourse around the solution of the demographic problem of Greece should focus on ways for improving the living conditions of young people in the country, whether young Greeks or the very young refugee and migrant populations who, from time to time, pass through and reside in the country, even for seasonal work in tourism.
“This means that we must, among other things, also focus on migration policies,” it suggests.
