New research suggests the Maya civilization may have peaked at a population of 16 million, far surpassing earlier estimates and shedding light on a society that was far more complex and interconnected than once believed.
The findings, published July 7 in the Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports, revise a 2018 estimate that placed the Maya population during the Late Classic Period (A.D. 600 to 900) at around 11 million. Using advanced laser-scanning technology, researchers now believe the actual number was closer to 16 million, marking a 45% increase.
The research team, led by Francisco Estrada-Belli of Tulane University’s Middle American Research Institute, based its conclusions on high-resolution lidar data.
This technology, which uses laser pulses from aircraft to scan terrain, revealed thousands of hidden structures beneath dense tropical forest across the Maya Lowlands. These maps allowed researchers to identify buildings, roads, agricultural systems, and other features that point to dense and organized human activity.
Laser data reveals deeper insights into Maya structure
Estrada-Belli said the scale of the increase surprised the team. He explained that while they anticipated some growth in population estimates from previous lidar surveys, the size of the jump underscored just how socially and economically organized the Maya Lowlands were at the height of their civilization.
The study focused on more than 36,000 square miles (95,000 square kilometers) spanning Guatemala’s Petén department, western Belize, and Mexico’s Campeche and Quintana Roo states. The area, known as the Maya Lowlands, is home to thick forests that have long concealed the remains of ancient cities and infrastructure.
While previous interpretations portrayed the Maya heartland as a mix of large cities and isolated rural settlements, the new data paints a different picture. According to the research, most buildings—urban or rural—were located within 3 miles (5 kilometers) of a central plaza.
These plazas typically included elite residences, ceremonial centers, and public gathering spaces, suggesting even rural communities were integrated into wider civic and religious life.
Settlement patterns point to a complex organization
Patterns across the region show that settlements shared similar layouts, with elites controlling public spaces and managing both social and agricultural activities. In the northern Lowlands in particular, researchers noted a higher degree of urbanization than previously documented.
The team wrote that the balance between urban and rural density zones was consistent across northern and southern regions, contradicting earlier assumptions of a sparsely populated north.
Despite its urban character, the northern region also featured vast agricultural networks. These systems were likely supervised by elites who managed food production and distribution across the city and countryside.
The updated population figures also raise new questions about the Maya collapse between A.D. 800 and 1000. A larger population may have intensified internal political tensions and placed greater strain on environmental resources, potentially accelerating the civilization’s decline.
Today, an estimated 8 million Maya descendants still live in southern Mexico and Central America, continuing the cultural legacy of one of the most remarkable civilizations in human history.
