In its July 15 report, UBS analyzes the potential direct and indirect effects of the proposed 30% tariffs announced by Donald Trump, expected to take effect on August 1.
According to the analysis, Greece is among the three European countries most exposed in terms of the percentage of exports to the US that fall under the new tariff regime.
These exports include sectors where Greece holds a comparative advantage, such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, agricultural goods, and processed industrial products. However, the proposed measures do not include any exemptions or differentiated tariff rates.
Most affected countries
The nations with the highest share of exports to the U.S. subject to the new tariffs are:
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Group A: Czech Republic, Poland, and Turkey (around 90% of exports impacted)
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Group B: Hungary, Greece, and the United Arab Emirates (60–75% affected)
Other countries are expected to face far less disruption. UBS simulations show that the most negative impact from a hypothetical 10% tariff increase would be felt in the Czech Republic and Hungary (25–30 basis points reduction in Gross Domestic Product [GDP]), followed by Poland and Greece (15–20 basis points), and then Turkey and the UAE (10 basis points). The rest of the countries are projected to see effects below 10 basis points.
Structural Challenges for Greece
As an EU member, Greece lacks an independent trade policy, which limits its ability to negotiate bilateral exemptions or tariff rollbacks. Furthermore, the small scale of most Greek export firms makes it difficult to quickly adjust logistics or sales strategies.
Greece’s export base is also heavily concentrated in a few sectors, mainly food, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, making it particularly vulnerable to broad trade restrictions. While the US is not one of Greece’s top trade partners overall, it remains a key market for several niche, high-value categories.
UBS highlights that Greece’s adjustment capacity will depend on:
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The EU’s ability to negotiate targeted exemptions,
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How quickly Greek businesses can pivot to alternative markets (e.g., Asia or the Middle East), and,
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Whether companies can enhance the value-added component of their products to reduce tariff exposure or achieve strategic status.
Moderate Impact in 2025, More Noticeable by 2026
UBS projects a cumulative negative effect on Greece’s GDP amounting to -0.15 percentage points in 2026, placing the nation in a moderate position in terms of vulnerability among emerging markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). The expected impact in 2025 is milder at -0.1%, as immediate disruption to existing trade agreements is unlikely within the year.
The drag on the economy is expected to be mostly indirect, transmitted from a weakened manufacturing and export sector to reduced domestic demand and business investment. A potential decline in export revenues may also dent the profitability of publicly traded Greek manufacturers with exposure to the U.S. market.
Greek GDP Projections Through 2027
According to UBS’s latest outlook, Greece’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, with growth slowing to 1.9% in 2027 under pressure from external headwinds.
In nominal terms, Greek GDP is projected to be $286 billion (€249 billion) in 2025 and $311 billion (€259 billion) in 2026 in US dollars. Per capita GDP is expected to reach $30,038 in 2026, reflecting Greece’s gradual convergence with the Eurozone average.
