Germans head to the polls this Sunday in a high-stakes election to choose their next chancellor, with conservatives emerging as the strong favorites. The election follows a tense campaign marked by a far-right surge, a struggling economy, and growing concerns over migration. The results will have far-reaching implications, closely watched by both Europe and the United States.
Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old leader of the conservative Christian Democrats party (CDU) is set to win the election, But he will need to forge an alliance with at least one other party, most likely with Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), whose government collapsed last year and called for a snap election.
On the eve of the vote, Merz was adamant he would not make a deal with the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is set to become the second biggest political force in Germany and is eyeing a record result after a string of deadly attacks across the country blamed on asylum seekers. The far-right party, led by Alice Weidel, is already popular in several eastern states, but is rapidly growing in the west too.
However, it may take many weeks for Merz to negotiate a coalition government, spelling yet even more political paralysis in Berlin under such fraught times. Schotz will remain as a caretaker chancellor until any new coalition takes shape.
Polling stations opened at 0700GMT, with more than 59 million Germans eligible to vote. The first estimates based on exit polls are expected after polls close at 1700 GMT. Up to 30 percent of voters had remained undecided last week.
Why Germany’s high-stakes election matters
The election is a landmark moment for Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, as the country will have to make big decisions both on the world stage and at home.
Merz promises strong leadership in Europe at a time of chaotic disruption, but Berlin is also under pressure to loosen the budget strings for its military.
As Ukraine’s second biggest provider of military aid after the United States, Germany’s next chancellor will face a U.S. President who has condemned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a dictator and fractured the West’s united front against Russia.
Across Europe, NATO allies worry about the future of the alliance, nowhere more than in Germany, which grew prosperous under the U.S.-led security umbrella.
Trump, asked about the elections in Germany, which he has scolded over its trade, migration and defense policies, said dismissively that “I wish them luck, we got our own problems.”
For the next German chancellor, more threats loom from the United States, long its ironclad ally, if Trump sparks a trade war,as he has hinted, that could further harm Germany’s recession-hit economy.
Germany’s political crisis was sparked when Scholz’s three-party coalition collapsed on November 6, the day Trump was re-elected U.S. president; the three-party coalition leaders had long quarreled over Germany’s tight finances.
Frustration with the leadership led to the rise of AfD, which has been polling at around 20 percent and looks set to stay in opposition as all other parties have vowed to keep it out of power.
U.S. Vice-President JD Vance has met with AfD’s leader Alice Weidel and has called for an end to the long-standing taboo of talking to the far-right.