Former US President Donald Trump’s criminal conviction in the hush money case presents an extraordinary collection of historic firsts and may have an impact on his bid to run for office this year.
Trump is the first of any former or serving US president to be found guilty of a crime, and he’s also the first presumptive major-party nominee to become a convicted felon.
Trump is currently planning his appeal in the hush money case, while awaiting a sentence on July 11th, which could potentially include prison time and a large fine. Considering the political implications, this situation is unprecedented and the first of its kind in the United States.
“We often look to history to find some kind of hint of what’s going to happen,” Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University told the BBC. “But there is nothing in the record that comes even close to this.”
Trump secured the Republican presidential nomination earlier this year and is set to be crowned at the party’s convention just days after his sentencing.
Polls indicate he is in a dead heat with President Joe Biden and holds a slight edge in several key swing states that will be decisive in the election. However, those surveys also provide evidence that his conviction might change all of that.
Donald Trump is threatening our democracy. First, he questioned our election system. Then, he questioned our judicial system.
And now, you can stop him:https://t.co/ekIEq70PUl
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) May 31, 2024
In exit polls conducted during the Republican primaries this winter, double-digit numbers of voters said they would not vote for the former President if he were convicted of a felony.
A survey carried out in April by Ipsos and ABC News found that 16 percent of those supporting Trump would reconsider their backing in such a situation.
However, this was all in response to hypothetical convictions. At the time, he was the subject of four criminal cases, including charges related to an alleged conspiracy to overturn the result of the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents once leaving the White House.
Voters can now make their judgment based on an actual conviction. “The real verdict is going to be [on] November 5, by the people,” Trump said, just after leaving the courtroom.
HAPPENING NOW: President Donald Trump receives massive wave of support after he was found guilty in the New York City trial, crashing his donation page.
Sequoia Capital’s Shaun Maguire: Donated $300,000 to Trump’s campaign.
Lee Zeldin: Secured an $800k donation for… pic.twitter.com/K64aCduLuA
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) May 31, 2024
Pollster Doug Schoen, who worked with Democratic President Bill Clinton and independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, says US voters may have watered-down feelings about the hush money case by then because it relates to events that took place eight years ago.
“While it’s not a great thing to be convicted of a crime, what voters will be thinking about in November is inflation, the southern border, competition with China and Russia, and the money that is being spent on Israel and Ukraine,” he told the BBC.
Even a very small drop in Trump’s support, however, could be enough to matter in the kind of pin-tip race this presidential contest may become. If a few thousand voters who would have otherwise supported the former president stay home in a key state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, it could make all the difference.
“I do think it will have an impact and damage him as a candidate,” Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of Republican Women for Progress, a group that has sought to move the party away from Trump, told the BBC.
She says younger voters and those who are college-educated and live in the suburbs have been concerned about Trump’s demeanor and his approach to governing.
“Those voters are really hesitant to get back in line with the Republican Party headed by Donald Trump,” she says. “The guilty verdict is going to further shore up those concerns.”
Can Trump still run for president after his conviction?
In short: yes. The US Constitution sets out three main requirements for being eligible to become president—and none of them reference being a convicted criminal. Candidates must have been born in the US, be over 35, and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.
“Nothing prevents him from running for president and being elected, even if he is in jail at the time of the election,” Elizabeth Wydra, president of the progressive Constitutional Accountability Centre, told the LA Times.
That’s despite people with a felony conviction—a crime that can be punished by a year or more in prison—not being allowed to vote in some states.
What if he were elected while in prison?
This is more uncertain, primarily because it is not clear if Trump will serve a prison sentence following the guilty verdict. Donald Trump’s convictions are class F felonies in New York, the lowest tier in the state, with each carrying a maximum sentence of four years.
When determining the sentence, the judge will have to take into account Trump’s age—77—his lack of previous criminal convictions, and the fact that the case involves a non-violent crime.
Even if the judge, Justice Juan Merchan, chooses a custodial sentence, it’s likely Trump will appeal the guilty verdict and expect to be on bail until that hearing.
That process may potentially go all the way to the Court of Appeals and could drag on for months—possibly even past November’s election. If the former President were to be elected while serving time, the situation would become more complicated still, with even constitutional experts unsure of what would happen.